The short answer is that print media of all types will disappear from our
everyday lives the moment they cease to be profitable. Murdoch will pull the
plug on the WSJ's print edition when there's even a hint it might go into the
red, but he is planning - like AOL before him - to shift the online edition
from subscription to advertiser supported. Why? Take a guess.
As
access to the Internet becomes more & more ubiquitous, it may eventually
absorb all media into itself, change them in the process, and continue to
change them as time goes by. Culture (content) usually evolves faster than
the media (forms of distribution) it uses. This, alas, is no longer the
case.
Gauging the progress of old media absorption is as easy as
measuring the flow of advertising dollars from old to new media over time. But gauging the onslaught of media evolution will not be as easy
as counting widgets. Whole new media are already being born before
our puzzled eyes.
Take maps. A short time ago, they were strictly a print
media affair. Now, they are turning into a medium of their own. Maps talk to
us, interact with us, guide us through our travels, and await an
infinite amount of useful information to be layered onto them. Maps are
going from something we occasionally used to something with us all the
time that we use in ways they've never been used before.
New media
"maps" provide an opportunity to ask dumb questions about old media like
"newspapers." For instance, what do we really mean by "newspaper"? If the
print form goes away, does that mean the content and organizations producing
it disappear? As in any disruptive change, it will depend on their
adaptability. News used to be something that only vied for our attention at
idle moments. The technical barriers are now falling to its becoming
something that can actually influence what we do at any moment in time
wherever we happen to be.
YourStreet.com is a completely new and potentially
lucrative way to deliver both professional and amateur news via online or
mobile GPS maps. It is one of a growing number of search and social
media applications based on
Natural Language Processing. Think of NLP as
a way to convert non-semantic Web 2.0 into semantic Web 3.0 without having
to suffer through a labor-intensive, formal classification of every last little bit. Now, combine NLP with informal tagging and other user-generated
content, and you have something that could fundamentally change the daily
lives of everyone it touches.
YourStreet is apparently onto this and is
plunging ahead despite a crowded field of mega-competitors. Let's hope they
own some patents & trade secrets that are easier to licence or buy than
work-around, because
the infrastructure that could make them wildly popular
is still years way.
To check
the local news, enter your zip code, grab the map, and drag it to center on
your street. It's that easy.
With the advent of widespread printing, they became commodities - less useful, less magical, less relevant. Yet somehow, they are now "back and better than ever" -- though the technological wizzardry of them actually is just expanding on their original power, not reinventing it.
Maybe this broader arc is where newspapers will go? From something special...to something irrelevant...to something "back and better than ever."
Instead of muling and puking about newspapers' demise, where is the discussion on the radical reinvention of newspapers? I'd be up for some serious brain time on that. Terra incognito that it may be. Dragons to be slayed. Horizons to fall off of...